The nature and form of personal ID documents are experiencing significant change as digital and mobile forms of ID takeover. This change is being driven by a range of factors that are outlined in a new report by Smithers, The Future of Personal ID to 2025.
 
The global personal identity market has grown from $8.5 billion in 2015 to $9.6 billion in 2020, at a CAGR of 2.5%, Smithers data shows. Across the five years from 2020 to 2025, the market will grow to $10.8 billion at a growth rate of 2.5%.
 
Market growth and the shift to digital and mobile personal ID will impact the supply chain, end uses, efficiency and security, which has implications for the public sector (governments, regulatory authorities, border control, law enforcement, national security, healthcare), for members of the public/citizens and the private sector (with an increase in public/private partnerships).
 
Underlying drivers and trends

Drivers in personal ID come from several areas: governments; new regulations and regulatory authorities; national border agencies and national security; a focus on streamlining access to government services (cost savings and reducing multiple ID formats to a single format). Technology advances and private sector initiatives are enabling and enhancing security, facilitating streamlined ID interfaces and efficiencies. Consumers/citizens are requiring quick, effective and hassle-free ID, with an assurance of security for their ID and data. Some authorities have eschewed public access to personal data, others have taken on national ID and card schemes.
 
According to Smithers’ research, current and developing trends in personal ID are: electronic national ID card schemes, national ID schemes, ePassports, smart borders/airports, demand for enhanced security and analytics, and biometrics. Emerging trends that will come into play later in the five-year period of the Smithers study are digital drivers’ licences, mobile and virtual ID, blockchain, new and emerging standards, multifunction ID and reduction in number of ID formats, ad next level biometrics – non-document ID. All of these trends have the potential to disrupt existing personal ID formats and end-use applications, according to Smithers.
 
The regulatory landscape

In relation to increasing regulation, trends that will have the most impact are pan-jurisdiction conformity and standards; credentials to mobile (and agreed standards and protocols); and trusted identities. These will become particularly important in relation to mobile digital ID in terms of security, public trust and the protection of personal ID data.
 
Societal changes

Consumers want convenience, time saving and security of personal identification. Increasingly, governments are seeing a need to build Public Trust Frameworks (a legal framework to build public confidence and trust in financial agencies and governments, based on agreed protocols). The more the focus on digital ID (surveys have indicated greater public willingness to accept digital ID), the greater the requirement for trust in the security of an individual’s ID, in who has access to it and in who controls it. However, the landscape will be mixed, with existing physical ID documents (or technology adapted ones) co-existing and integrating with end-use applications in parallel to the development of digital and mobile ID and the roll-out of such systems and applications.
 
Regional developments

Geographically the mix will be even more relative as some regions adopt digital applications while others lack the resources and infrastructures to do so. One of the issues is the large percentage of some populations who do not have birth certificates. UNICEF estimates that 36% of births (48 million people) are not registered, in some countries this is as high 70%. In South Asia, the percentage is estimated at 63% and in sub-Saharan Africa at 55%. This has implication for authorities in relation to voter registration and access to healthcare, international aid and government services. This also
affects NID systems and has repercussions for obtaining other ID documents. The World Bank ID4D programme estimated that some 2.4 billion people worldwide do not have recognised forms of ID.
 
Asia will be the largest regional market by 2025, followed by Africa, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central and South America. This reflects the same relationships in 2020, despite changing growth rates. Africa will have the highest growth rates to 2025.  Asia is the largest global market for ID, with China’s and India’s growing populations, but this must be factored against a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy.
 
Western Europe has 8.3% of the global market, followed by Eastern Europe. North America has a surprisingly low market share, which reflects the lower percentage of citizens who hold passports compared to other regions. Conversely, a number of US States still need to comply with the REAL ID Act, which requires all states to ensure all drivers hold a compliant driving license that enables boarding of flights within the country.



Find out more about the Future of Personal ID to 2025 here.