The Future of Print to 2030

Table of Contents Key Facts and Figures

Our exclusive content:

An in-depth look at the incremental improvements in analogue technology, and significant boosts to digital print in quality, productivity and the cost position
In 2030 the digital age will have matured significantly with new channels and experiences available that will further marginalise many print publications.

This report, a long-term forecast to 2030, provides a view on the prospects for print markets and printed packaging, together with the associated supply sectors of printing machinery, paper, board and substrates, inks, plates and chemicals, etc. Any forecast is always a hostage to fortune, predictions during periods of extensive uncertainty are more difficult to determine, hence the use of scenarios to model alternative futures that may arise.

The 2020 COVID-19-induced sharp drop in print volume is reflected in the consumption of substrates, with the 256.2 million tonnes in 2019 dropping to nearly 229.6 million tonnes in 2020, down by almost 10.4%.

By 2030 the boundaries between different sectors will blur, with more functionality being integrated into many products.

What will you discover?

By 2030 packaging will account for almost two thirds of the global print market
Publishing will make up nearly 40% of print volume in 2030, but will still be the biggest loser in the market
As some markets diminish many print suppliers have diversified into new activities, servicing more of their particular customer value chains.

What methodology is used?

This report is based on extensive primary and secondary research. Primary research consisted of targeted interviews with print suppliers and experts drawn from key markets.
Smithers Information keeps a comprehensive database of print markets and works continually to refine the content. There are many secondary sources used, and much primary research conducted by Smithers that is backed up by in-house and associate consultants in Europe, Asia and the Americas.

Who should buy this report?

Printers
Raw material and consumables suppliers
Printing machinery and equipment suppliers
Print end-users
Consultants and analysts

About the Author

Sean Smyth has spent more than 25 years in senior technology and management positions for a variety of print businesses across the supply chain, where he applied systems and technology to improve efficiencies. He also serves in hands-on and consultancy roles. Sean has extensive experience in digital printing.

In his time with Smithers, Sean has authored several off-the-shelf market studies, including The Future of Digital Print for Packaging and Smithers' flagship title, The Future of Global Printing, and has provided strategic consultancy services to a range of clients across the value chain.

Name The Future of Print to 2030

Date 21/12/2020

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Resources:

Executive Summary
Introduction

Introduction and methodology
Scope & definitions
Geographic coverage
Exchange rates

The operating environment for print

Introduction
The impacts of COVID19
- Digital and analogue printing
- Scenario 1 – minimum disruption
- Scenario 2 – medium recession and disruption
- Scenario 3 – depression
- The likely outcome
Impact of supply chain changes
Mega trends impacting print demand
- Demographics
- Retail changes
- Advertising changes
- Brand changes
- Consumer Preferences
- Increasingly connected world
- Sustainability
Drivers

Technological landscape

Analogue printing
- Sheetfed litho
- Web Offset litho
- Flexography
- Gravure
- Other print technologies
Digital print systems
- Electrophotography
- Inkjet
  - Printhead developments
  - Ink and fluid development
  - Print equipment developments
Print finishing
The digitisation of printing
- Workflow
  - The smart job file
Re-engineering print manufacturing
- Serial to parallel processes
Broader technology developments
- Artificial Intelligence
- Smart technology
- Multi-experience
- Blockchain
- Robotics

Publishing print markets

Overview
Scenarios for publishing
Books
Magazines
Newspapers
Directories

Graphic print markets

Graphic print
Scenarios for graphics print
Advertising print
Commercial printing

Printed label and packaging markets

Overview
E-Commerce packaging
Scenarios for labels and printed packaging
Labels
Corrugated
Cartons
Flexible packaging
Rigid plastics
Metal cans and boxes

Paper and substrate markets

Paper
- Newsprint
- Uncoated woodfree
- Coated woodfree
- Uncoated mechanical (groundwood)
- Coated mechanical (groundwood)
- Other paper
Packaging board
Film
Foil
Other printing substrates

The outlook for print

Digitisation
- Future advertising trends/ publisher business models
Attractiveness of the print and packaging sectors
- Five-Forces (Porter) Model for print-for-profit
  - Threat of substitute products/services
  - Threat of new entrants
  - Bargaining power of customers
- Power of suppliers
- Intensity of competitive rivalry
- Complementors
Print company demographics
Changing activities of print companies
Strategic approaches for print service providers
- Ansoff matrix analysis
  - Market penetration
  - Market expansion
  - Market development
  - Product extension
  - Product development
  - Partial diversification – products
  - Partial diversification – markets
The implications of on-line print (web-to-print)

Beyond traditional printing

List of Figures
FIGURE 2.1 Global print and print packing market 2015-2030 by category ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 2.2 Growth rates of global print and print packing market 2015-2030 by category ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 2.3 Global print and print packing market 2015-2030 by category (billion A4 prints)
FIGURE 2.4 Growth rates of global print and print packing market 2015-2030 by category (trillion A4 prints)
FIGURE 2.5 Applications in Global print and print packing market 2015 ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 2.6 Applications in Global print and print packing market 2015 (billion A4 prints)
FIGURE 2.7 Applications in Global print and print packing market 2030 ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 2.8 Applications in Global print and print packing market 2030 (billion A4 prints)
FIGURE 2.9 Regional print and printed packaging market 2015-2030 ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 2.10 Growth rates of regional print and print packing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 2.11 Regional print and printed packaging market 2015-2030 (trillion A4 prints)
FIGURE 2.12 Growth rates of regional print and print packing market 2015-2030 by print process (trillion A4 prints)
FIGURE 2.13 Global print and print packing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ billion constant 2019 values
FIGURE 2.14 Growth rates of global print and print packing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 2.15 Global print and print packing market 2015-2030 by print process (trillion A4 prints)
FIGURE 2.16 Growth rates of global print and print packing market 2015-2030 by print process (trillion A4 prints)
FIGURE 2.17 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global print and print packaging markets 2014-2024 ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 2.18 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global print and print packaging market 2014-2024 (A4 trillion prints)
FIGURE 2.19 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global publication print markets 2014-2024 ($ billion constant 2018 values)
FIGURE 2.20 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global publication print markets 2014-2024 (A4 trillion prints)
FIGURE 2.21 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global graphics print market 2014-2024 ($ billion constant 2018 values)
FIGURE 2.22 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global graphics print market 2014-2024 (A4 trillion prints)
FIGURE 2.23 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global label and printed packaging market 2014-2024 ($ billion constant 2018 values)
FIGURE 2.24 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global label and printed packaging market 2014-2024 (A4 trillion prints)
FIGURE 2.25 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on analogue global label and printed packaging markets 2014-2024 ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 2.26 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on digital global print and printed packaging markets 2014-2024 ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 2.27 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on analogue global label and printed packaging market 2014-2024 (A4 trillion prints)
FIGURE 2.28 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on digital global label and printed packaging market 2014-2024 (A4 trillion prints)
FIGURE 3.1 Web-to-print functionalities
FIGURE 4.1 Global publication printing market 2015-2030 by product ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 4.2 Global publication printing market 2015-2030 by product (billion A4 prints)
FIGURE 4.3 Global publishing print market 2015-2030 ($ billion, constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 4.4 Regional publishing print markets 2015-2030 ($ billion, constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 4.5 Regional publishing print markets 2015-2030 (A4 trillion prints)
FIGURE 4.6 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global publication print markets 2014-2024 ($ billion constant 2018 values)
FIGURE 4.7 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global publication print markets 2014-2024 (A4 trillion prints)
FIGURE 5.1 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global graphics print markets 2014-2024 ($ billion constant 2018 values)
FIGURE 5.2 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global graphics print markets 2014-2024 (A4 trillion prints)
FIGURE 6.1 Global label and printed packaging market 2015-2030 by product ($ billion constant 2019 values)
FIGURE 6.2 Global label and printed packaging market 2015-2030 by product (billion A4 prints)
FIGURE 6.3 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global label & printed packaging market markets 2014-2024 ($ billion constant 2018 values)
FIGURE 6.4 Scenarios demonstrating the potential impacts of COVID19 on global label & printed packaging market markets 2014-2024 (A4 trillion prints)
FIGURE 7.1 Global printed substrates by category 2015-2030 (million tonnes)
FIGURE 7.2 Global printed substrates by category 2015-2030 (million tonnes)
FIGURE 7.3 Global printed substrates by category 2015-2030 (million tonnes)
FIGURE 7.4 Global distribution of printed substrates by tonnage in 2015 and 2030
FIGURE 7.5 Global distribution of printed substrates by are in 2015 and 2030
FIGURE 8.1 Ansoff Matrix of risk management
FIGURE 8.2 Magazine printing value activity map
FIGURE 8.3 Catalogue printing value activity map
FIGURE 8.4 Ansoff Matrix for commercial print companies

List of tables
TABLE 1.1 2019 US Dollar exchange rates used in this study (=$1US)
TABLE 2.1 Global print and printed packaging market 2015-2030 by print category ($ billion constant 2019 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 2.2 Regional print and printed packaging market 2015-2030 ($ billion constant 2019 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 2.3 Global print and printed packaging market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 2.4 Changes in global print and printed packaging processes 2015-2030 ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 2.5 Global print and printed packaging market forecast scenarios ($ billion constant 2018 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 2.6 Scenarios for global print market forecast scenarios by print category compared with the Global Print to 2024 report ($ billion constant 2018 values)
TABLE 2.7 Impact of the scenarios on global print market forecast scenarios by print category, compared with the Global Print to 2024 report ($ billion, constant 2018 values)
TABLE 2.8 Scenarios for global print market forecast scenarios by print category compared with the Global Print to 2024 report (trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 2.9 Impact of the scenarios on global print market forecast scenarios by print category, compared with the Global Print to 2024 report (trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 2.10 Scenarios for global print market forecast scenarios by print process compared with the Global Print to 2024 report ($ billion, constant 2018 values)
TABLE 2.11 Impact of the scenarios on global print market forecast scenarios by print category, compared with the Global Print to 2024 report ($ billion, constant 2018 values)
TABLE 2.12 Scenarios for global print market forecast scenarios by print process compared with the Global Print to 2024 report (trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 2.13 Impact of the scenarios on global print market forecast scenarios by print category, compared with the Global Print to 2024 report (trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 2.14 Western generations
TABLE 2.15 Major trends and drivers shaping print in 2030
TABLE 3.1 Long term impacts of technologies outside print sector
TABLE 4.1 Global publication print markets 2015-2030 ($ billion constant 2019 values and A4 trillion prints)
TABLE 4.2 Global publishing printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 4.3 Regional publishing printing market 2015-2030 ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 4.4 Substrates used in global publishing printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 4.5 Scenarios for global publishing print market forecast compared with the Global Print to 2024 report ($ billion constant 2018 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 4.6 Impact of the scenarios on global print market forecast scenarios by print category, compared with the Future of Global Print to 2024 report ($ billion, constant 2018 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 4.7 Global book printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 4.8 USA book publishing market 2017-2019 ($ million)
TABLE 4.9 Regional book printing market 2015-2030 ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 4.10 Substrates used in global book printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 4.11 Substrates used in global book printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 4.12 Global magazine printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 4.13 Regional magazine printing market 2015-2030 ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 4.14 Substrates used in global magazine printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 4.15 Global newspaper printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 4.16 Regional newspaper printing market 2015-2030 ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 4.17 Substrates used in global newspaper printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 4.18 Global directory printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 4.19 Regional directory printing market 2015-2030 ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 4.20 Substrates used in global directory printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 5.1 Global graphics printing market 2015-2030 by product ($ billion constant 2019 values and billion A4 prints)
TABLE 5.2 Global graphics printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ billion constant 2019 values and billion A4 prints)
TABLE 5.3 Regional graphics printing market 2015-2030 ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 5.4 Substrates used in global graphics printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 5.5 Scenarios for global graphics print market forecast compared with the Global Print to 2024 report ($ billion constant 2018 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 5.6 Impact of the scenarios on global graphics print market forecast scenarios by print category, compared with the Global Print to 2024 report ($ billion, constant 2018 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 5.7 Global advertising printing market 2015-2030 by application ($ billion constant 2019 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 5.8 Global advertising printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ billion constant 2019 values and billion A4 prints)
TABLE 5.9 Substrates used in global advertising printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 5.10 Global general commercial printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ billion constant 2019 values and billion A4 prints)
TABLE 5.11 Substrates used in global commercial printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 6.1 Global label and printed packaging market 2015-2030 by product ($ billion constant 2019 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 6.2 Substrates used in global labels and package printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 6.3 Global packaging and label printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 6.4 Regional printed packaging and label market 2015-2030 ($ billion constant 2019 values and billion A4 prints)
TABLE 6.5 Substrates used in global label and package printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 6.6 Scenarios for global label & printed packaging market forecast compared with the Global Print to 2024 report ($ billion constant 2018 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 6.7 Impact of the scenarios on global label & packaging print market forecast scenarios, compared with the Global Print to 2024 report ($ billion, constant 2018 values and trillion A4 prints)
TABLE 6.8 Global label printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 6.9 Regional printed label market 2015-2030 ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 6.10 Substrates used in global label printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 6.11 Global label printed corrugated packaging market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 6.12 Regional printed corrugated packaging market 2015-2030 ($ billion constant 2019 values and billion A4 prints)
TABLE 6.13 Substrates used in global corrugated packaging printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 6.14 Global label printed folding cartons market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 6.15 Regional printed folded carton market 2015-2030 ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 6.16 Substrates used in global carton printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 6.17 Global printed flexible packaging market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 6.18 Regional printed flexible packaging market 2015-2030 ($ billion constant 2019 values and billion A4 prints)
TABLE 6.19 Substrates used in global flexible packaging printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 6.20 Global rigid plastic printing market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 6.21 Regional rigid plastics printing market 2015-2030 ($ billion constant 2019 values and billion A4 prints
TABLE 6.22 Substrates used in global rigid plastics printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes) 1
TABLE 6.23 Global printed metal package market 2015-2030 by print process ($ million constant 2019 values and million A4 prints)
TABLE 6.24 Regional printed metal package market 2015-2030 ($ billion constant 2019 values and billion A4 prints)
TABLE 6.25 Substrates used in global metal packaging printing 2015-2030 by type (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 7.1 Global printing substrate market 2015-2030 (million tonnes and billion square metres)
TABLE 7.2 Regional printing substrate markets 2015-2030 (million square metres)
TABLE 7.3 Regional paper substrate markets 2015-2030 (million square metres)
TABLE 7.4 Regional newsprint markets 2015-2030 (thousand tonnes and million square metres)
TABLE 7.5 Newsprint markets 2015-2030 by print application (thousand tonnes
TABLE 7.6 Regional uncoated woodfree printing paper markets 2015-2030 (thousand tonnes and million square metres)
TABLE 7.7 Newsprint markets 2015-2030 by print application (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 7.8 Regional coated woodfree printing paper markets 2015-2030 (thousand tonnes and million square metres)
TABLE 7.9 Coated woodfree paper markets 2015-2030 by print application (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 7.10 Regional uncoated mechanical printing paper markets 2015-2030 (thousand tonnes and million square metres)
TABLE 7.11 Uncoated mechanical paper markets 2015-2030 by print application (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 7.12 Regional coated mechanical printing paper markets 2015-2030 (thousand tonnes and million square metres)
TABLE 7.13 Coated mechanical paper markets 2015-2030 by print application (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 7.14 Regional other printing paper substrate markets 2015-2030 (thousand tonnes and million square metres)
TABLE 7.15 Other paper grade markets 2015-2030 by print application (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 7.16 Regional printed packaging board markets 2015-2030 (thousand tonnes and million square metres)
TABLE 7.17 Packaging board markets 2015-2030 by print application (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 7.18 Regional printing film substrate markets 2015-2030 (thousand tonnes and million square metres)
TABLE 7.19 Printing film markets 2015-2030 by print application (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 7.20 Regional printing foil markets 2015-2030 (thousand tonnes and million square metres)
TABLE 7.21 Printing foil markets 2015-2030 by print application (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 7.22 Regional other printing substrate markets 2015-2030 (thousand tonnes and million square metres)
TABLE 7.23 Other print substrate markets 2015-2030 by print application (thousand tonnes)
TABLE 8.1 Timeline of electronic substitution of printed material
TABLE 8.2 Six-forces model for graphical printing in 2020
TABLE 8.3 Country and regional print and allied trade establishments
TABLE 8.4 Size distribution of print and allied trade establishments in 2020
TABLE 8.5 Regional packaging suppliers in 2020
TABLE 8.6 Size distribution of packaging establishments 2020
TABLE 9.1 Outlook for industrial printed applications to 2030