Increased use of aseptic cartons for dairy, and a surge in new applications will provide a strong boost to the global demand for liquid paperboard over the next five years, according to exclusive new data, published by Smithers. 

Its new report – The Future of Liquid Paperboard to 2028 – projects total global consumption of liquid packaging board will top 4 million metric tons for the first time in 2023, with a total sales value of $17.58 billion. The market has seen only a minor deflection from the Covid-19 pandemic, with sales of long-life, shelf-stable foods holding up well in mature markets. Smithers forecasts consumption will increase to 4.16 million tons in 2024, and value to $18.26 billion, at constant pricing. 

Across the medium term, the market will benefit from diversification into new segments and markets, notably in Asia. This will help add an extra $4.00 billion to liquid packaging board sales worldwide across 2023-2028, as an additional 931,000 tons of converted material pushes global consumption close 5 million tons, and global value climbs to $21.63 billion.

Consumption of foodstock and cupstock grades are forecast to follow a similar trajectory; rising from 4.73 million tons and a value of $18.22 billion in 2023; to 5.94 million tons in 2028, worth $22.83 billion at constant pricing. 

Smithers expert market modelling shows that dairy products remain central to the success of liquid packaging board, accounting for 71.3% of contemporary demand, by volume. Significant opportunity exists in increased sales in Asian markets – India, China, and Southeast Asia – where consumption of dairy products remains very undeveloped. Dairy sales have been buoyed by the pandemic, with consumers in China, for example, searching out healthy or immune-boosting foods. To tap this potential there will be need for new milk and yogurt packaging tailored to local buying and consumption patterns, including accommodating a significant import market for shelf-stable goods. 

In more developed markets, liquid foods (soups, sauces, purees, etc) and alternative beverages, such as ready-to-drink iced coffees are stimulating diversification. This is leading to innovation in caps and closures, more convenience features, and towards smaller size aseptic cartons.  

Beyond foodstuffs, brands in personal care and home cleaning are switching from rigid plastic bottles to liquid paperboard. These younger, less-saturated markets will reward innovation in fixtures, barrier performance and packaging design to blossom.

The principal challenge in established segments is in making existing liquid paperboard formats more sustainable. European converters have already had to introduce tethered caps to comply with local single-use plastic legislation.

While further innovation in caps and closures is anticipated, the main imperative is to improve recyclability at end-of-life, where separating aluminum barrier layers from paperboard fibers still requires specialized equipment. In response several leading liquid paperboard producers have trialed concepts that replace foil with plastic barrier layers. These are easier to separate at standard material recovery facilities, but care needs to be taken to match the barrier performance to the products under shipment.

These innovations will be increasingly important in Europe. The adoption of the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) will introduce tough new recycling rules. If genuine sustainability can be built into liquid paperboard designs, aseptic cartons can be positioned to displace plastic bottles in retail sales; with the foodservice segment already offering new options for foodstock and cupstock.

The Future of Liquid Paperboard to 2028 provides a comprehensive analysis of the liquid packaging board markets, authoritatively tracking the impact of new regulatory and market trends across the next five years.
Its in-depth market data (by value and volume) for 2018-2028, covers raw material input, installed conversion capacity, and conversion rates. These are presented in over 200 tables and figures, segmenting the market by 

• End-use application – Liquid dairy, Juices & dilutables, Other beverages, Liquid foods, Other retail foods, Household & personal care, Other non-food 
• North America; United States, Canada ,Mexico; South & Central America, Brazil, Other South & Central America; Western Europe, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Other Western Europe; Eastern Europe, Poland, Russia, Other Eastern Europe; Middle East, Turkey, Other Middle East; Africa; Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, Other Asia, Asia, Australasia.

This is supported by analysis of major converters, and a parallel dataset on production and consumption of foodstocks and cupstocks.